报告称美国铜进口量将增至七倍

US copper imports to grow seven-fold: reports

由于担心美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将对铜征收关税，美国的铜进口量估计将增至七倍。

Copper imports into the US are estimated to grow seven-fold amid fears that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on the metal.

上个月，白宫以国家安全为由下令对铜进口进行评估。这可能导致在今年年底前对铜征收25%的关税。

Last month, the White House ordered an evaluation of copper imports alleging national security concerns. This could lead to tariffs of 25% potentially implemented before the end of the year.

据彭博社报道，大宗商品交易商Mercuria预计，约有50万吨铜正运往美国，而美国通常的进口量只有7万吨。周一的报道称，Mercuria本身也有8.5-9万吨铜在运输途中。

According to Bloomberg, commodity trader Mercuria projects that around 500,000 tonnes of copper are being shipped to the US, compared to the 70,000 t normally imported into the country. Mercuria itself has 85,000-90,000 t on the way, the report said Monday.

周二，Mercuria金属和矿产全球主管Kostas Bintas在洛桑举行的英国《金融时报》大宗商品峰会上表示，铜市场正在经历“紧缺”，价格将达到或超过1.2万美元/吨。

On Tuesday, Kostas Bintas, global head of metals and minerals at Mercuria, told the FT Commodities Summit in Lausanne that the copper market is experiencing “tightness” and is heading to prices of $12,000/tonne or above.

彭博社也援引了Bintas的观点，他解释说，在潜在关税之前，美国大量进口铜正在重塑市场。铜需求通常由中国消费主导。

Bintas, who was also quoted by Bloomberg, explains that the significant US copper imports, ahead of potential tariffs, are reshaping the market. Copper demand is usually dominated by Chinese consumption.

需求激增推动美国期铜价格上涨，周二Comex期铜价格为5.20美元/磅，相当于超过11,460美元/吨。相比之下，LME期货价格为9,956美元/吨。

The spike in demand has fuelled copper futures prices in the US, which were $5.20/pound on Tuesday on the Comex, equivalent to over $11,460/t. In comparison, LME futures were $9,956/t.

本月早些时候，高盛预测，在加征关税之前，美国铜净进口量将增加50%-100%，从而推动美国铜库存在第三季度末增加20-30万吨。

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs forecast that US copper net imports would rise by 50-100% before tariffs are imposed, pushing US copper inventories up by 200,000-300,000 t by the end of Q3.

分析师说：“进口量增加主要是由于部分原定运往亚洲的南美和非洲材料被分流。重要的是，流向美国的金属将被滞留，因为较高的国内价格将阻碍再出口。”

“The increase in imports should mainly come from a partial diversion of material from South America and Africa that was destined for Asia,” analysts say. “Importantly, metal that flows to the US will be stranded, as the higher domestic price will discourage re-export.”

根据高盛的预测，这种态势将导致美国以外的市场人为紧缩，从而导致2025年全球铜市场缺口达到18万吨。这一展望是在电气化需求、中国刺激政策抵消关税不利因素以及矿山供应增长放缓的背景下提出的。

This dynamic will result in artificially tight markets outside of the US, leading to a 180,000 t global copper market deficit in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs. The outlook comes amid electrification demand, China stimulus offsetting tariff headwinds and slower mine supply growth.