卢布走强导致俄罗斯钢厂考虑暂停方坯出口

Rouble strengthens, Russian mills consider halting billet exports

市场人士告诉Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询），卢布大幅升值，给俄罗斯钢材出口商带来压力，迫使他们重新考虑定价策略，甚至暂停销售。

The sharp appreciation of the rouble is putting pressure on Russian steel exporters, forcing them to reconsider their pricing strategies and even suspend sales temporarily, market participants inform Kallanish.

市场预期汇率在3月底前将继续走强，带来更多不确定性。上周卢布已经明显走强，导致方坯出口商理论上遭受20美元/吨的损失。

Market expectations suggest the exchange rate will continue strengthening until late March, adding further uncertainty. Over the past week, the rouble has strengthened notably, resulting in a $20/tonne theoretical loss for billet exporters.

大量出口生铁、板坯、方坯和热轧卷的俄罗斯主要钢厂预计将暂停销售，观察汇率趋势，并试图降低原材料成本。

Major Russian mills exporting pig iron, slab, billet and hot rolled coil in large volumes are expected to pause sales for a few days to observe exchange rate trends and attempt to cut raw material costs.

据悉，一些中型钢厂新的方坯报价为460-465美元/吨fob新罗西斯克，一些钢厂考虑暂停出口。大型生产商可能会继续出口，但将大幅减少出口量。

Several mid-sized mills heard were setting new billet offer prices at $460-465/tonne fob Novorossiysk, while some were considering halting exports. Larger producers will likely continue exporting but aim to reduce volumes significantly.

一位贸易商说：“官方汇率降至81.502卢布兑1美元，一天内下降3.3%，方坯出口商需要将fob报价提高约15美元/吨以抵消损失。这意味着最低报价应该从450-455美元/吨升至465-470美元/吨fob，一些生产商，例如Tula，需要将报价提高至485-490美元/吨以保持盈利。”

“The official exchange rate dropped to 81.502 roubles per dollar, a 3.3% [dollar] decline in a single day, requiring billet exporters to increase their fob prices by around $15/tonne to offset losses. This means the minimum offer price should rise from $450-455 to $465-470/t fob, while some producers, such as Tula, need $485-490/t fob to maintain profitability,” a trader says.

一位俄罗斯生产商说，按照目前的汇率，即使方坯价格为500美元/吨fob也难以获利，钢厂可能会选择在国内消耗更多生铁，同时减少废钢采购。与此同时，对方坯的出价为440美元/吨fob新罗西斯克，这使得出口面临越来越大的挑战。

A Russian producer remarks that at the current exchange rate, even $500/t fob is insufficient for billet to make a margin, and mills may opt to consume more pig iron domestically while reducing scrap purchases. Meanwhile, bids for billet were at $440/t fob Novorossiysk, making exports increasingly challenging.