印度螺纹钢价格在供需失衡中反弹

Indian rebar prices rally amid demand-supply mismatch

Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）报道，印度螺纹钢市场价格已经持续上涨一个月，贸易商市场价格每周上涨500-1,000卢比/吨（6-12美元/吨），买家担心价格进一步上涨和减产导致供应紧张而囤积材料。

The Indian rebar market has been witnessing a price rally for a month, with prices in the traders’ market rising by INR 500-1,000/tonne ($6-12/t) weekly, as buyers hoard material fearing further increases and supply constraints due to production cuts, notes Kallanish.

一级螺纹钢（12-32毫米IS 1786 Fe 550D）孟买出厂价为55,500-56,000印度卢比/吨，二级市场上，12-25毫米IS 1786 Fe 500D螺纹钢赖布尔出厂价为44,500-45,000印度卢比/吨。

Primary rebar (12-32mm, IS 1786 Fe 550D) is now assessed at INR 55,500-56,000/t ex-Mumbai, while in the secondary market, 12-25mm IS 1786 Fe 500D rebar is priced at INR 44,500-45,000/t ex-Raipur.

市场人士认为，价格上涨的原因是2025年3月财政年度结束前的意外需求，以及钢厂的减产。

Market participants attribute the price rally to unexpected demand before the fiscal year ends in March 2025, coupled with production cuts by steel mills.

德里一位螺纹钢贸易商说：“由于几个月来价格一直承压，钢厂减产以平衡供需动态。然而，德里大选之后，建筑商的营运资金略有改善，需求出乎意料地激增。这种失衡现在正推动价格上涨。”

\"As prices had been under pressure for several months, steel mills reduced production to balance supply-demand dynamics. However, demand surged unexpectedly post-Delhi elections and with a slight improvement in builders\' working capital. This mismatch is now driving up prices,\" says a rebar trader in Delhi.

孟买一位贸易商补充说：“一旦2月中旬价格上涨，保障关税的传言得到证实，分销商和囤货商开始囤积螺纹钢，造成短缺并推高价格。我预计高价趋势将持续到3月底。”

A Mumbai-based trader adds, “once prices rose in mid-February and safeguard duty rumours gained traction, distributors and stockists began hoarding rebars, creating a shortage and pushing up prices. I expect the high price trend to continue until March-end.”

他进一步指出，即使在4月，由于高温影响劳动生产率，钢厂和熔炉通常也会减产。“10小时的轮班往往缩短为8小时，进一步限制供应。即使需求有所缓解，减少的产量也可能会支撑目前的价格水平，防止价格大幅下跌。”

He further notes that even in April, mills and furnaces typically reduce production due to high temperatures impacting labour productivity. \"A 10-hour shift often shortens to 8 hours, further restricting supply. Even if demand eases, reduced production will likely support current price levels and prevent a major price drop.”

与此同时，小型钢铁行业正在经历重大转型，从螺纹钢和结构钢转向棒材、杆材和特种钢。 这一转变旨在丰富产品种类，提高盈利能力，满足不断变化的市场需求。

Simultaneously, the mini steel sector is undergoing a major transformation, moving beyond rebar and structural to focus on bars, rods, and special steels. This shift aims to diversify offerings, enhance profitability, and cater to evolving market demand.

随着螺纹钢领域竞争的加剧，以及汽车、基础设施和工程领域对高价值特种钢需求的增加，生产商看到获得更高利润和长期增长的机会。

With rising competition in the rebar segment and increasing demand for high-value special steels across automotive, infrastructure, and engineering sectors, producers see an opportunity for higher margins and long-term growth.

此外，环境、森林和气候变化部（MOEF）已批准3-4家新企业扩产多达1,000万吨，这预示着供应量即将大幅增加。

Additionally, MOEF (Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change) clearances have been granted for up to 10mt of capacity expansion by just 3-4 new players, signalling significant upcoming supply additions.

预计这一转变将重塑螺纹钢市场，加剧竞争并推动传统生产商进行创新。对特种钢的日益关注可能会吸引新的终端用户行业，影响原材料采购，并改变定价动态。

This transformation is expected to reshape the rebar market, intensifying competition and pushing traditional producers to innovate. The increased focus on special steels could attract new end-user industries, impact raw material sourcing, and shift pricing dynamics.