越南对中国热轧卷征收反倾销税

Vietnam slaps anti-dumping duty on Chinese HRC

Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）报道，在周五发布期待已久的对中国和印度产品的调查结果之后，中国热轧卷将从下月起在越南面临19.38-27.83%的初步反倾销税。

Chinese hot rolled coil faces preliminary anti-dumping duties of 19.38-27.83% in Vietnam from next month following the results of a long-awaited investigation into Chinese and Indian product issued on Friday, Kallanish notes.

越南工贸部（MoIT）的调查对象是厚度为1.2-25.4毫米、宽度不超过1,880毫米的热轧卷，归入以HS编码7208、7211、7225和7226为首的18个税目。在收到国内生产商Hoa Phat Group和Formosa Ha Tinh Steel的申请后，工贸部于去年7月启动调查（见Kallanish相关报道）。

Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry & Trade (MoIT) \'s investigation targeted 1.2-25.4mm thickness and width not exceeding 1,880mm HRC categorised under 18 tariff lines headed by HS codes 7208, 7211, 7225, and 7226. MoIT launched its investigation last July after receiving a petition from domestic producers Hoa Phat Group and Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (see Kallanish passim).

对中国钢厂和供应商征收的反倾销税初步定为19.38%、26.94%或27.83%。印度热轧卷进口关税被免除，因为虽然有证据表明存在倾销行为，但其在越南进口总量中所占份额微不足道，不到3%。

Preliminary anti-dumping duties levied on Chinese mills and suppliers have been set at 19.38%, 26.94% or 27.83% (see table). Duties on imports of Indian HRC were waived because although there was evidence of dumping practices, their share in Vietnam total imports were insignificant at under 3%.

越南热轧卷也是印度反倾销调查的目标，定于2月27日举行口头听证会。

Vietnamese HRC itself is being targeted in an AD probe by India where an oral hearing is scheduled to take place on 27 February.

海关数据显示，越南去年进口1,172万吨相关热轧卷产品，同比增长26%。来自中国的进口量激增38%，达到约840万吨。

Customs data show that Vietnam imported 11.72 million tonnes of the targeted HRC products last year, a 26% year-on-year increase. Volumes from China surged 38% to some 8.4mt.

为防止进口量大幅上升，该部决定实施临时关税，以尽量减少对国内产业的损害。这些关税从3月8日起生效。

To prevent the imports from rising significantly, the ministry has decided to implement provisional duties to minimise damage to the domestic industry. The duties take effect from 8 March.

据越南消息人士称，对中国热轧卷征收关税是“合理的”，可以阻止中国材料的进口。

The duties on Chinese HRC are \"reasonable\" to block imports of Chinese material, according to Vietnamese sources.

一位供应印尼热轧卷的贸易商说：“我们应该会有更大的空间，但我们听说由于美国的关税，更多的日本和韩国热轧卷可能想来越南。”

\"There should be more room for us, but we hear more Japanese and South Korean HRC may want to come to Vietnam because of the US duties,\" a trader supplying Indonesian HRC says.

他说，越南的热轧卷需求非常疲软，关税将对价格产生“一些影响，但可能太大”。上周早些时候，一批5万吨日本SAE 1006 2毫米热轧卷成交价为495美元/吨cfr越南南部。

The duty will have \"some influence but maybe too big\" on prices, he says, noting Vietnamese HRC demand is very weak. A 50,000t cargo of Japanese SAE 1006 2mm HRC was ordered earlier last week at $495/t cfr southern Vietnam.

Kallanish评估的SAE级2-2.7毫米厚度热轧卷价格为490美元/吨cfr越南，周环比上涨5美元/吨。

Kallanish assessed SAE grade 2-2.7mm thickness HRC at $490/t cfr Vietnam, up $5/t on-week.

越南是中国原产热轧卷的主要出口市场。中国消息人士预计，短期内，反倾销税将产生较大的负面影响。一位上海贸易商说：“不要说28%，即使是8%的税率也会使中国热轧卷无法在越南销售。”

Vietnam is the leading export market for China-origin HRC. In the short term, Chinese sources expect the AD’s impact to be a large and negative. “Forget about 28% – even an 8% tax rate would make it impossible for Chinese HRC to be sold in Vietnam,” says a Shanghai-based trader.

一位出口商警告说：“这意味着失业。对于那些依靠越南为生的贸易商来说，末日已经来临。”

“This spells unemployment. For those traders who rely on Vietnam for their livelihood, the end has come,” one exporter warns.

然而，一些分析师和市场参与者指出，从长远来看，市场将出现新的平衡。一位分析师说：“需求将最终决定中国出口量的走向。在越南的价格因中国供应不足而上涨之后，价格将达到新的平衡。”

In the long run, however, some analysts and market participants note there will be a new market equilibrium. \"Demand will finally determine where China\'s export volume will fall to. Prices will reach a new balance after Vietnam\'s prices rise due to the lack of Chinese supply,” an analyst says.

他补充道：“想想2021年中国取消出口退税，当时大家都很悲观。谁能想到，仅仅三年后，中国的钢铁出口量就达到历史第二高水平呢？”

“Think about China\'s cancellation of export tax rebates in 2021, and everyone was very pessimistic at that time. Who would have thought that China\'s steel exports would reach the second highest level in history just three years later?” he adds.