内人士称废钢还不是“新黄金”

Scrap not the \'new gold\' yet, say panellists

土耳其板材产品出口商、进口商和制造商协会（Y?SAD）主席Tayfun ??eri认为，备受期待的废钢交易热潮尚未出现，原因很简单，全球钢铁需求没有得到支持。

The much-anticipated boom in scrap trading is yet to materialise simply because steel demand globally is not supportive, according to Tayfun ??eri, chairman of Turkey’s Flat Steel Product Exporters, Importers and Manufacturers Association (Y?SAD).

上周在伊斯坦布尔举行的Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）2025废钢会议上，??eri说：“我说过废钢不会成为新的黄金。我是对的。废钢价格由钢铁需求决定。”

“I said scrap would not be the new gold. I was right. Scrap prices are dictated by steel demand,” ??eri said at Kallanish Steel Scrap 2025 in Istanbul last week.

在2025年的前六个月，或者说在通货膨胀和利率下降到足以鼓励消费者在汽车和房屋等方面的消费之前，全球需求仍将缓慢。

Global demand will remain slow in the first six months of 2025, or until inflation and interest rates have been brought down sufficiently to encourage consumer spending on things like cars and houses.

政治动态也可能发挥关键作用。这在很大程度上取决于美国和俄罗斯能否就乌克兰战争达成协议，以及这是否意味着将取消对俄罗斯的制裁。此外，加沙局势仍不明朗。

Political dynamics are also likely to play a key role. Much will depend on whether the US and Russia can reach a deal over the Ukraine war and whether this means sanctions on Russia will be removed. The Gaza situation, meanwhile, remains uncertain.

??eri指出，欧盟的能源转型至少在2027年之前不太可能对废钢供需产生重大影响。

The EU’s energy transition is unlikely to have a serious impact on scrap supply and demand till at least 2027, ??eri observed.

美国的关税形势风云变幻，全球贸易前景每天都在发生变化，而美国总统唐纳德·特朗普却喜欢保持事情的不确定性。??eri说：“废钢成本可能会激增，因为美国进口废钢的25%来自加拿大。目前没有对废钢或金属征税。但我们不知道他（特朗普）会怎么做。”他补充说，美国轧钢厂能否继续进口板坯原料也是个问题。

The US tariff situation is so fluid that the outlook for global trade is changing daily, while US President Donald Trump likes to keep things uncertain. “Scrap costs could surge because 25% of US scrap imports are from Canada. Right now there is no tax on scrap or metallics. But we don’t know what he [Trump] is going to do,” Iseri noted. There are also questions over whether US rolling mills will be able to continue importing slab feedstock, he added.

世界已经从全球化走向区域化、本地化。??eri认为，钢铁行业是否能在最新的转变中幸存下来还有待观察。

The world has gone from globalisation to regionalisation, to localisation. It remains to be seen whether the steel industry survives the latest shift, Iseri observed.

特朗普的行动很可能会刺激外国对美投资。??eri认为，最近有报道称现代钢铁公司正在考虑在美国建厂，新日铁与美国钢铁公司的交易很可能会继续进行。尽管特朗普已经确定他希望外国公司投资的优先领域，但问题仍然是，在高通胀和高利率的情况下，投资者是否有投资欲望。

Trump’s actions are likely to spur foreign investment in the US. Hyundai Steel was recently reported to be considering building a US plant, while the Nippon deal for US Steel is likely to go through, Iseri believes. Although Trump has identified priority sectors he wants foreign firms to invest in, the question nevertheless remains whether investors have the appetite amid high inflation and interest rates.

土耳其钢铁生产商协会（TCUD）秘书长Veysel Yayan表示，到2053年，土耳其的粗钢产能将超过9,700万吨/年，其中电弧炉占85%。特朗普的关税将使钢铁行业进一步本地化，从而对土耳其的贸易产生影响。他补充道：“出口市场可能不是我们的首要目标，我们将首先考虑本地市场的情况。”

In the case of Turkey, crude steel production capacity will exceed 97 million tonnes/year by 2053, with electric arc furnaces accounting for 85%, said Turkish Steel Producers Association (TCUD) general secretary Veysel Yayan. Trump’s tariffs will further localise the steel sector, with consequences for Turkish trade. “The export market might not be our first target. We will look at local market conditions first,” he added.

与此同时，土耳其国内废钢收集量已达到约1,200万吨/年，并将继续增长。Yayan说：“土耳其本地废钢收集的份额将逐步提高。如果你看看我们在Eurofer的朋友，你可能会觉得我们从欧洲进口的数量越来越多。事实并非如此……这正在慢慢减少。”

Turkish domestic scrap collection has meanwhile reached some 12m t/y and will continue to grow. “The share of Turkish local scrap collection will be step by step higher,” Yayan commented. “If you look to our friends at Eurofer, you may have the impression we are importing more and more from Europe. That’s not the case … It’s slowly decreasing.”