业内人士称废钢关税影响有限，需求依然低迷

Tariff scrap impact limited, demand remains subdued: panel

在周四于伊斯坦布尔举行的Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）2025废钢会议上，大多数与会人士认为，到第一季度末，废钢价格可能会保持在340-360美元/吨cfr土耳其的区间，而今年钢铁需求不太可能出现大幅反弹。

Scrap prices are likely to remain in the $340-360/tonne cfr Turkey range by the end of the first quarter, while a significant steel demand rebound is unlikely this year, was the view of the majority of panellists at Thursday’s Kallanish Steel Scrap 2025 conference in Istanbul.

Colakoglu Metalurji采购总监Koray Gunay表示，美国的关税一开始可能会提高美国国内废钢价格，但一旦达到一定水平，买家就会停止购买，价格就会回落。美国宣传加征关税是为了在贸易谈判中占据有利地位。Gunay表示，如果美国真的对所有商品征收25%的关税，“这对他们的市场来说将是很奇怪的……我认为，（关税）豁免将逐渐出现，价格也会下降。”

US tariffs will likely raise US domestic scrap prices at first, but buyers will stop paying once they reach a certain level and values will come down, said Colakoglu Metalurji purchasing director Koray Gunay. The US is advertising tariffs to start from a strong position in trade negotiations. If it really imposes a 25% levy on everything, “this will be weird for their market … I think exclusions [from tariffs] will gradually come and prices will come down,” Gunay commented.

需求方面，Gunay对土耳其建筑业的复苏持怀疑态度，因为自两年前的灾难性地震以来“并没有什么进展”。叙利亚在巴沙尔·阿萨德之后也只能看到缓慢的复苏。Gunay问及叙利亚重建所需的资金时说：“谁来为此买单？”

As for demand, Gunay is sceptical of a construction revival in Turkey, given that “not much has happened” since the catastrophic earthquakes two years ago. Syria will also see only a slow recovery post-Bashar al Assad. “And who is going to pay for it?” Gunay asked of the funds needed for Syria’s reconstruction.

杭州热联国贸有限公司中东办事处总经理Yasin Kanbur指出，由于多起针对中国的贸易案件以及美国加征关税，2025年中国的钢铁出口量应该不会再像2024年那样高。只要中国国内需求依然疲软，出口就将是必要的。他补充道，尽管中国上周宣布向大型房地产开发商万科提供价值数十亿元的支持，但“由于市场的现实情况，其影响为零。”

Chinese steel exports should not remain in 2025 as high as they were in 2024, due to multiple trade cases against China as well as US tariffs, but nothing is certain, pointed out Hangzhou CIEC International’s general manager Middle East Office, Yasin Kanbur. So long as Chinese domestic demand remains weak, exports will be necessary. Despite China announcing support worth billions of yuan for major real estate developer Vanke last week, “it had zero impact because of the market reality,” he added.

Kanbur指出，到2030年，中国本地的废钢产量将增加30%，达到3.5亿吨，但废钢出口的可能性不大，因为中国对确保自身供应更感兴趣。

Chinese local scrap generation will rise 30% by 2030 to 350 million tonnes, but scrap exports are unlikely as China is more interested in securing its supply, Kanbur noted.

印度实施了三项旨在同时改善国内废料加工基础设施的政策。印度材料回收协会（MRAI）秘书长Amar Singh指出，迄今为止在“非正规”部门产生的废料将进入正规加工，并在统计中登记。

India has implemented three policies designed to simultaneously improve domestic scrap processing infrastructure. Scrap hitherto generated in the “informal” sector will go into formal processing and be registered in statistics, noted Material Recycling Association of India (MRAI) secretary general Amar Singh.

不过，印度是一个“机会主义进口国”，将继续采购外国废钢。Singh补充说，最近需求下降的原因很简单，那就是印度大量进口中国钢材。他对下一财年印度钢铁需求强劲充满希望，这得益于印度近期预算中对基础设施项目的大量拨款。

India is nevertheless an “opportunistic importer” and will continue to source foreign scrap. Demand has recently fallen simply because of the large Indian import volumes of Chinese steel, Singh added. He is hopeful of strong Indian steel demand in the next fiscal year thanks to substantial infrastructure project allocation in India’s recent budget.

Gunay总结说，美国取消关税豁免对迄今为止享受豁免的钢材向美国供应的影响，以及中国是否会继续压低全球价格，是2025年的主要不确定因素。

The impact of US tariff exemption removals on supply into the US of steel hitherto enjoying exemptions, as well as whether China will continue to depress global prices are the key factors of uncertainty for 2025, Gunay concluded.